MOST RECENT COMMON ANCESTOR (MRCA) BRACKET FOR LIVINGSTONS OF 
  DUNIPACE AND LIVINGSTONS OF CALLENDAR BRANCH POINT USING THE LEGACY 
  51 MARKER Y-UTILITY
    
  
    To Begin, Two 25 marker samples are provided.
    Recall that I (Julian Livingston) 
  am sample FTDNA #27186. Further, note that the Australians who state 
  connection to "Philip the signer" of the Declaration of Independence, can be 
  represented by marker sample FTDNA #12063. They are taken as New York Livingstons who ultimately descend by paper connection from Callendar Livingstons.

    We begin by using only 25 markers as our two data sets to compare:
    12063 13 24 15 11 11 
  14 12 12 12 13 13 29 17 9 10 11 11 24 15 19 31 15 15 16 17
    27186 13 26 14 
  11 11 14 12 12 12 13 13 29 18 9 10 11 11 24 15 19 30 15 15 16 17 


    We calculate the 
  UPPER edge of the date bracket using
    the described Y-DNA Comparison Utility 
  with 51 Marker Capability; 
    
Link to the supporting 
  information and other possibilities directly here:
     51 Marker Utility.

    Time to Most Recent Common Ancestor 
  (Generations)
    12063 25 23
    27186 23 25


    
  - The result is 23 generations
    
  - Infinite allele mutation model is 
  used
    
- Average mutation rate varies: 0.0044 to 0.0044, from FTDNA derived 
  rates
    
- Values on the diagonal indicate number of markers tested
    
- Probability is 50% that the TMRCA is no longer than indicated

    


    We calculate the LOWER edge of the date bracket using:
    Time 
  to Most Recent Common Ancestor (Generations)
    12063 25 31
    27186 31 
  25
    

    - The result is 31 generations

    - Infinite allele mutation model is 
  used

    - Average mutation rate varies: 0.0044 to 0.0044, from FTDNA 
  derived rates

    - Values on the diagonal indicate number of markers 
  tested

    - Probability is 75% that the TMRCA is no longer than 
  indicated
    

  We also calculate for 25% with a result of 17 generations or a date of 1505AD.  The bracket is 1155AD to 1355AD to 1505AD.  Peaking around 1355AD or 50% matches rather
well with the paper trail/historical data as can be seen in the discussions below; namely, an estimate of the Historical Common Ancestor (HCA) birth at 1390AD.
 


    25 Marker Probability Density Function Outline
    
Suggesting the MRCA was born around 1355 with 350 year spread:
    

17X25 = 425; 1930-425 = 1505AD
    
23X25 = 575; 1930-575 = 1355AD
    
31X25 = 775; 1930-775 = 1155AD
    






     ==================================


 
  
    However, in this particular case 37 markers are available so it seems desirable to refine to that level; we proceed in the same fashion as before:
    12063 13 24 15 11 11 14 12 
  12 12 13 13 29 17 09 10 11 11 24 15 19 31 15 15 16 17 11 11 19 23 15 15 19 18 
  35 38 12 12 
    27186 13 26 14 11 11 14 12 12 12 13 13 29 18 09 10 11 11 24 15 
  19 30 15 15 16 17 10 11 19 23 16 15 20 17 37 38 12 12 
  
    We calculate the UPPER edge of the date bracket using the described Y-DNA 
  Comparison Utility with 51 Marker Capability. 
  
    The output paradigm of the calculation is:
    Time in Generations to Most 
  Recent Common Ancestor
    12063 37 28
    27186 28 37

    - It is 28 
  generations ago 
    - Infinite allele mutation model is used
    - Average 
  mutation rate varies: 0.0054 to 0.0054, from FTDNA derived rates
    - Values 
  on the diagonal indicate number of markers tested
    - Probability is 50% that 
  the TMRCA is no longer than indicated
    - 28 generations X 25 
  years/generation = 700 years

    We calculate the LOWER edge of the date 
  bracket using the described Y-DNA Comparison Utility with 51 Marker 
  Capability.

    The output paradigm of the calculation is:
    Time in 
  Generations to Most Recent Common Ancestor
    12063 37 34
    27186 34 
  37

    - It is 34 generations ago 
    - Infinite allele mutation model 
  is used
    - Average mutation rate varies: 0.0054 to 0.0054, from FTDNA 
  derived rates
    - Values on the diagonal indicate number of markers tested 
  
    - Probability is 75% that the TMRCA is no longer than indicated 
    

We also calculate for 25% resulting in 22 generations or 550 years or 1380AD; the result seems to be that using the 37 marker data we are shoved further back in time opening the possibility that we might not be dealing with Dunipace but an earlier branch of the Livingston descendants. This is a factor undergoing continuing research.
    

Calculating the resulting dates: 
    37 Marker Probability Density Function Outline
    
Suggesting the MRCA was born around 1230 with 300 year spread:


 
    22X25 = 550 years; 1930-550 = 1380AD

    28X25 = 700 years; 1930-700 = 1230AD 

    34X25 = 850 years; 1930-850 = 1080AD    

    

NOT A TOTALLY HAPPY RESULT FOR A REFINEMENT - Sir Alexander Livingston, the historical father of Dunipace and Callendar was likely born in the two decades after 1381AD so we might be looking at an earlier split.  However, I must note that we are in the realm of where we should be.



    Note:I take that branch point [Historical Common Ancestor (HCA)] (from Livingstons of Callendar  by Edwin Brockholst Livingston, 1920 edition, chart p485-486) as the birth date of the common ancestor of the two houses.  Sir Alexander Livingston, must have been born around 1390AD, since his father was married in 1381 and died at Holmildon Hill in 1402.  There may be objections to using E.B.Livingston's book as the source but it is an established reference within the Livingston family and has a fairly good reputation there.  Others are welcome to pursue other sources, but I think they will come up with similar dates in this straightforward matter.
    

================================== 
    


    Discussion of this Discourse's
    
Unexpected Focus on Previous Generation's
    
Historical Common Ancestor for the MRCA
     



    Something I have been wanting to point out for some time and always 
end up going round and round in friendly discussion with Andrew Lancaster, our project manager, on this, is I think I have established support of the Dunipace connection via DNA at the 25 marker level of comparison. The dates of the E. B. Livingston book and the calculations of the bracket are basically in agreement.  Andrew always says this result is just too much like all other R1b haplotypes living in the same time period in the same backyard. 
    

Agreed, but that is like saying we are never going to prove the connection to Dunipace  with DNA because that split point into the Callendar line and the Dunipace line is just too far back in time. If we listen to Andrew on this, then DNA cannot prove Poropotank descent from Dunipace by showing the MRCA (Most Recent Common Ancestor) lies in the same spot as the known paper trail split (see "Livingstons of Callendar" for this documetation). This does not mean that descent from Dunipace cannot be supported (high probability) from DNA evidence. It just means Andrew may be right in that one cannot do the proof with this particular MRCA. A stronger "proof" would result from a living known descendant of the Dunipace line being a close match with say my 37 (or 67 now) markers.  Andrew has suggested exactly that sort of search and of course we are hot on that trail.
    

Another Issue: The data from the pair of Australians who state connection to "Philip the signer" of the Declaration of Independence and hence to New York Livingstons and Callendar are the key, namely Livingston FTDNA sample numbers 12063 and 29085. I in no way comment or contest or support their connection to Philip the signer; if anything, I would think if I merely use that data I would be supporting their connection to Philip the signer in some sense.  This is not the issue at all.


    But we should do better with a 37 marker calculation and that does not seem to be the case.  The refined calculation for 37 markers shows the following.  If one calculates the years (actually using generations, then 25 years per generation) one gets for 37 markers over the 25%-50%-75% range the dates 1380AD to 1230AD to 1080AD. This does not compare too well with the likely birth date of Sir Alexander Livingston, circa 1390AD, although his birth could have been earlier.  But we are still hovering at the upper edge of his probability density function (PDF)
    

((Note that this is not a "stand-alone" discourse but assumes knowledge of the Livingston DNA project with Andrew Lancaster as the manager.  It also focuses on the "Poropotank" Livingstons, a early family that settled in Virginia about 1650 and whose origins have not been fully explained by paper tracking.  These few paragraphs and calculations are related to that family and are not intended to impact, or prove other matters relating to Andrew's larger picture of "all" the families of Livingstons.))
    

Julian Livingston
    
Comments are invited.

    
julian@bluemarble.net

    
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