MOST RECENT COMMON ANCESTOR (MRCA) BRACKET FOR CERTAIN  CAMPBELLS (my mother's surname) AND CERTAIN TURNER & TINKER FAMILIES, NAMELY A BRANCHING INDIVIDUAL IS DATED USING THE FTDNA CALCULATOR Y-UTILITY
    

My cousin CAMPBELLs (my mother's surname) and certain TURNER (and TINKER further down page) families can be compared with startling results - a perfect match for TURNERs to 25 markers, but by 37 markers we diverge by four points.  The haplogroup for these Campbells and similar ilk is R1a1 from testing these specific markers: M173+ M198+ M207+ M124- M157- M343- M56- M87- SRY10831.2- .



    To Begin, Two 37 marker samples to establish the relation between Campbell and Turner are provided.  The two 37 marker sets are:
    

TURNER 13 25 15 10 11 14 12 10 10 13 11 30 15 09 10 11 11 24 14 20 32 12 14 14 17 12 11 19 23 16 16 19 19 33 37 13 12
    
CAMPBL 13 25 15 10 11 14 12 10 10 13 11 30 15 09 10 11 11 24 14 20 32 12 14 14 17 11 11 19 23 15 16 19 19 33 39 13 12
    

    
No prior known MRCA info gives the following result:
    
01% - 02 - 050 or 1880AD
    
25% - 06 - 150 or 1780
    
50% - 09 - 225 or 1705
    
75% - 12 - 300 or 1630
    
99% - 24 - 600 or 1330
    

    

With no known MRCA within 6 generations,
    
that warps the pdf into this result:
    
10% - 07 - 175 or 1755AD
    
25% - 09 - 225 or 1705
    
50% - 11 - 275 or 1655 <---- The likely birth date of the MRCA
    
75% - 14 - 350 or 1580
    
90% - 18 - 450 or 1480
    
99% - 26 - 650 or 1280
    


    
The refined calculation for 37 markers shows the following.  If one calculates the years (actually using generations, then 25 years per generation) one gets for 37 markers over the dates shown and selecting the 50% point 1705 with no prior knowledge of the most recent common ancestor.  But if we profess to know that there is no common ancestor within six generations then we can be sure that it moves even further back.

    
I also want to include analysis of the TINKER vs Campbell family results here as well.  The Tinker remote cousin misses my first cousin by 1 at the 25 marker level and by 4 at the 37 marker level. 

    
No prior known MRCA info gives the following result:
    
25% - 04 - 100 or 1830
    
50% - 07 - 175 or 1755
    
75% - 11 - 275 or 1655
    

    

With no known MRCA within 6 generations,
    
that warps the probability density function
    
(pdf) into this result:
    
25% - 09 - 225 or 1705
    
50% - 11 - 275 or 1655 <---- The likely birth date of the MRCA and the TURNER submission.
    
75% - 15 - 375 or 1555
    

    
Note that this is not a "stand-alone" discourse but helps to have knowledge of the FTDNA CAMPBELL project with Kevin Campbell as the manager.  This project provides "my" cluster of three Campbell cousins representing the population spreading from Preble County, Ohio that have absolutely identical DNA markers at the 37 marker level. This cluster froms what I call the Preble County Ohio Campbell Cluster which dates from about 1830 with the movement from the earlier tobacco farming cluster around Selbyville, Delaware (hard against the Maryland border in northern Worcester County).  The diaspora from Preble County, Ohio began about 1855 and was said to have roots in the repeated cholera epidemics in that location.  

    
But we must look further into the past for these DNA connections to bear fruit in an MRCA.  If the paper trail is true concerning "my" Campbell line, then the MRCA for both TURNER and TINKER was born in 1655 or just before the time the arriving James Campbell married Katherine Larre 5/26/1661 in Hungars Parrish, Accomack, Virginia.  If my very early paper trail is correct, this might indicate the trail may be one that shows the connection to be on the England/Scotland side of the Atlantic.  OR some circumstances perhaps caused a Turner child to be adopted by James after his marriage to Katherine.  Checking the main surname index of Northampton County Virginia we note a standout portion of the surname index is devoted to Turners which is very interesting indeed.

    

    Recent discovery - interspersion so to say:
      
[[I have noted that all three volumes of the Campbell family history, namely A History of the Clan Campbell by Alistair Campbell of Airds, Unicorn Pursuivant, contain references to the Turner or MacInturner family, or Tavus Turners per old Gaealic sayings, mostly revolving around their presence on Loch Awe as boatsmen and defenders of the Loch.  The Turners had been there since before 1485, namely before the arrival of the Campbells, and held the post at the mouth of the river Awe under the Campbells thereafter.  The Turners are also tied to boatbuilding crafts and ferrying on the Loch, as well as associated with such skills as smithy, armourer, and jeweller. July 2007]]

    Continuing:
    
I also want to include the TINKER vs Campbell family analysis here as well.  The Tinker remote cousin misses my first cousin only by 1 at the 25 marker level and by 4 at the 37 marker level. 

    
No prior MRCA info gives the following result:
    
25% - 04 - 100 or 1830
    
50% - 07 - 175 or 1755
    
75% - 11 - 275 or 1655
    

    

With no MRCA within 6 generations,
    
that warps the pdf into this result:
    
25% - 09 - 225 or 1705
    
50% - 11 - 275 or 1655 <---- The likely birth date of the MRCA with the TINKER submission.
    
75% - 15 - 375 or 1555
    

    
These results certainly push us back further, and indicate some spectacular event has caused all this commonality of DNA descent to have occurred.

    
Julian Livingston
    
Comments are invited.

    
julian@bluemarble.net

    
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